In what was an “unambiguously” unpleasant April jobs payrolls report, with a March revision dragging that month’s job gain to the lowest level since June of 2012, the fact that the number of Americans not in the labor force rose once again, this time to 93,194K from 93,175K, with the result being a participation rate of 69.45 or just above the lowest percentage since 1977, will merely catalyze even more upside to the so called “market” which continues to reflect nothing but central bank liquidity, and thus – the accelerating deterioration of the broader economy.
End result: with the civilian employment to population ratio unchanged from last month at 59.3%, one can easily on the chart below why there will be no broad wage growth any time soon, which will merely allow the Fed to engage in its failed policies for a long, long time.
Add that piece of news to the fact that the number of women not in the workforce has also surged to a record 56,167,000, and we’ll be able to say President Barack Obama’s and Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s recovery is almost complete.
Yet, amid never-ending cycles of bad economic news, a sense of optimism persists on Wall Street while the Fed is stuck in a corner of its own making as to how they can unwind their balance sheet and raise rates (they won’t) with an “improving” economy, without letting the whole thing implode into another recession. Yellen, meanwhile, has also displayed confidence in the future of the economy, which merely begs the question: if the economy is really on solid footing, why not raise rates already? Yellen can’t do that. She knows she’s in a bind created by her Keynesian predecessors and colleagues at the Fed, because her only recourse up until now is pretending she has everything under control.